UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
London, United Kingdom
16 Feb 2013
Featherweight
VS
43%
Swanson
57%
Poirier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Cub
Cub Swanson
31 – 14
5'8"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Poirier

This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 43% vs Poirier at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Swanson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Swanson
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Swanson
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
61.4
48.8
Performance Avg
58.2
40
Quality of Victory
50
56
Momentum Score
100
Swanson
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.7
56%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
8 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
15
2
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance14
2Clinch2
8Ground1
Swanson
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Swanson
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Swanson
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
8
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Swanson
Poirier
Striking6.2 / 6.0Volume5.2 / 4.0Grappling1.2 / 2.2Wrestling0.8 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 1.8Pressure5.3 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Swanson
Strike Zones
Poirier
Swanson
Attacking
15HEAD2BODY2LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Poirier
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY2LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (79% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (88% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Swanson
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0

Swanson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L5.2W5.2W6.4W5.8W5.5W5.0W4.0L5.1L4.5W4.5W6.3W4.5W3.5L5.5L2.3L5.5L5.3W6.1W2.5L5.5W3.3L4.6W6.2L6.7W5.7W2011-112014-112018-042022-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Swanson · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Cub Swanson · Dustin Poirier
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