UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Orlando, USA
19 Dec 2015
Lightweight
VS
51%
Johnson
49%
Diaz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michael
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
25 – 20
5'10"73" reachSouthpaw39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
ND
Nate Diaz
22 – 13
Well-Rounded41 yrsSouthpaw76" reach6'0"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johnson

This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 51% vs Diaz at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johnson
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
73"
Reach
+76"
39+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Johnson
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.8
35.3
42.5
Performance Avg
53.4
38
Quality of Victory
50
35
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.9
39%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
54
8
Body
5
7
Leg
4
RangeRange
36Distance60
0Clinch3
0Ground0
Johnson
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.6
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/45 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
Johnson
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
100
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Johnson
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
75%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
10
10
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Diaz
Striking4.8 / 2.4Volume6.0 / 3.2Grappling1.5 / 5.6Wrestling1.1 / 3.9Submission0.0 / 6.3Pressure4.1 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
Johnson
Strike Zones
Diaz
Johnson
Attacking
21HEAD8BODY7LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
54HEAD5BODY4LEGS63 absorbed
Diaz
Attacking
54HEAD5BODY4LEGS63 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD8BODY7LEGS36 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (58% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (86% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.5L5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W6.5L5.5L6.3W4.0L3.7L3.2L5.2W4.5W4.1L5.5L3.0L6.0L5.2W5.7L4.6W3.8L5.3W6.0W4.9W4.0L2010-122013-082017-072022-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Diaz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W6.0L5.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.7L4.6W7.1W7.5L4.5W4.8L6.6L5.9W2007-062009-092011-122016-032022-09
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Drew DoberRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R2
Ottman AzaitarRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Darrius FlowersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Diaz · Last 5

W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08

News & Media

Michael Johnson · Nate Diaz
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