UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Elmont, USA
16 Jul 2022
Women's Flyweight
VS
50%
Murphy
50%
Tate
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Lauren
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
16 – 7
5'5"67" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Miesha
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
20 – 10
Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Murphy

This is a genuine toss-up — Murphy at 50% vs Tate at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Murphy throws more volume but Tate connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Murphy's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Tate has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Murphy
Tate
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
67"+
Reach
65"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Tate
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.7
52.5
41.9
Performance Avg
42.5
34
Quality of Victory
38
87
Momentum Score
94
Murphy
Tate
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
22
9
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
27Distance26
11Clinch2
0Ground0
Murphy
Tate
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Murphy
Tate
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
46
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
14/30 fights
Murphy
Tate
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
94
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Murphy
Tate
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
43%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Murphy
Tate
Striking3.6 / 2.4Volume6.1 / 5.6Grappling2.5 / 3.7Wrestling1.8 / 2.6Submission1.3 / 2.9Pressure4.2 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Murphy
Strike Zones
Tate
Murphy
Attacking
29HEAD9BODY0LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD4BODY2LEGS28 absorbed
Tate
Attacking
22HEAD4BODY2LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD9BODY0LEGS38 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (76% of attacks) — Tate absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Tate targets the head (79% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Murphy
RND
Tate
0/0R00/0

Murphy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5L5.5W5.8L4.5W5.5L5.5W4.9W4.5W5.2W4.7W4.7L5.4W6.3L6.3L2014-082017-122020-062022-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Tate · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.0L2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.6W2.7L6.1L5.5W5.9L6.3L6.3W5.6L2013-042015-012016-112023-122025-05
WinLossTrend

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06

Tate · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Sub · R3
Julia AvilaRating 6.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · KO · R3
Marion ReneauRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07

News & Media

Lauren Murphy · Miesha Tate
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