UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
Atlanta, USA
21 Apr 2012
Welterweight
VS
42%
MacDonald
58%
Mills
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mills
This is a genuine toss-up — MacDonald at 42% vs Mills at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mills has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Mills has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
MacDonald's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
MacDonald
Mills
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
76"
Reach
76"
36+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
MacDonald
Mills
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.1
25.5
51.3
Performance Avg
62.7
39
Quality of Victory
60
61
Momentum Score
95
MacDonald
Mills
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
54%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
18Ground0
MacDonald
Mills
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
MacDonald
Mills
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/23 fights
Chin rating based on
4/26 fights
MacDonald
Mills
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
95
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
MacDonald
Mills
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
MacDonald
Mills
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.3
MacDonaldMills
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMills
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯MacDonald targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mills absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Mills targets the legs (100% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
MacDonald
RND
Mills
0/0R00/0
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Mills · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02
Mills · Last 4
Upcoming
Matthew RiddleUFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Rory MacDonaldRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
W · KO · R1
Chris CopeRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11