UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux
Bangor, USA
16 Aug 2014
Middleweight
VS
36%
Watson
64%
Alvey
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TW
Tom Watson
"Kong"
17 – 9
6'1"73" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 13
SA
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33 – 18
Well-Rounded8-fight slide40 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'2"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alvey

Alvey holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Watson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Alvey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Alvey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Watson
Alvey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
73"
Reach
+75"
43
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Watson
Alvey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
22.9
35.4
Performance Avg
44.3
40
Quality of Victory
45
10
Momentum Score
43
Watson
Alvey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
46
4
Body
6
9
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance23
2Clinch29
0Ground0
Watson
Alvey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Watson
Alvey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
24/51 fights
Watson
Alvey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
8-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Watson
Alvey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
60%
1
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Watson
Alvey
Striking5.6 / 5.9Volume4.6 / 4.1Grappling1.2 / 1.8Wrestling0.8 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 1.0Pressure4.4 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Watson
Strike Zones
Alvey
Watson
Attacking
11HEAD4BODY9LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
46HEAD6BODY0LEGS52 absorbed
Alvey
Attacking
46HEAD6BODY0LEGS52 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD4BODY9LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Watson targets the head (46% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 46% of strikes there
🎯Alvey targets the head (88% of attacks) — Watson absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Watson
RND
Alvey
0/0R00/0

Watson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L2012-092013-082014-082015-08
WinLossTrend

Alvey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W1.8L5.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.4W4.5W2.8L3.0L5.5L5.9L3.3L5.5L4.1L2.5L2014-082016-072017-102020-052022-08
WinLossTrend

Watson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Nick CatoneRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08

Alvey · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R2
Julian MarquezRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
Upcoming
Da Woon Jung
Decision
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10

News & Media

Tom Watson · Sam Alvey
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