UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Middleweight
VS
64%
Miranda
36%
Guimaraes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miranda
Miranda holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Guimaraes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miranda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 32 points.
Guimaraes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guimaraes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miranda
Guimaraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
73"
47
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miranda
Guimaraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
12.7
51.1
Performance Avg
35.0
57
Quality of Victory
25
78
Momentum Score
50
Miranda
Guimaraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
54%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
1
2
Body
1
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
5Distance6
14Clinch0
0Ground0
Miranda
Guimaraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miranda
Guimaraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Miranda
Guimaraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Miranda
Guimaraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miranda
Guimaraes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
MirandaGuimaraes
Strike Zones
Miranda
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedGuimaraes
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miranda targets the head (89% of attacks) — Guimaraes absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Guimaraes targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Miranda absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miranda
RND
Guimaraes
0/0R00/0
Miranda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Guimaraes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Miranda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abu AzaitarRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · KO · R2
Marcelo GuimaraesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · KO · R2
Clint HesterRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
Guimaraes · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Vitor MirandaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · Dec · R3
Andy EnzRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
L · KO · R2
Hyun Gyu LimRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · 2013-03
W · Dec · R3
Dan StittgenRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · 2012-07