METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2022
Featherweight
VS
42%
Mitchell
58%
Topuria
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:10
★ Official Result
Ilia TopuriawinsSubmissionR2 · 3:10
def. Bryce Mitchell · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Topuria
→
Actual result
Topuria wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Mitchell at 42% vs Topuria at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Topuria has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 30 points.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MitchellTopuria
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mitchell
Topuria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
31
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Topuria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.3
78.3
50.2
Performance Avg
73.5
32
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Mitchell
Topuria
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
8.5
/ 10
4.4
Style: Pressure
8.1
7.1
Style: Volume
3.6
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
22
5
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance13
1Clinch2
0Ground8
Mitchell
Topuria
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mitchell
Topuria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
10/17 fights
Mitchell
Topuria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R4
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Mitchell
Topuria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
78%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Topuria
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
MitchellTopuria
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTopuria
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (60% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Topuria targets the head (96% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Topuria
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mitchell · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Santiago LunaSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovDecision
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L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaSubmission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieKO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Topuria · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraKO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiKO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06