UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2022
Featherweight
VS
40%
Mitchell
60%
Topuria
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:10
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Topuria
Topuria holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Mitchell has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Topuria has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Striking split: Topuria throws more volume but Mitchell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Mitchell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell
Topuria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
31
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mitchell
Topuria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
82.3
48.6
Performance Avg
77.5
31
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Mitchell
Topuria
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.6
55%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
22
5
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance13
1Clinch2
0Ground8
Mitchell
Topuria
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mitchell
Topuria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
10/17 fights
Mitchell
Topuria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
9-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Mitchell
Topuria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
78%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mitchell
Topuria
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
7.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
MitchellTopuria
Strike Zones
Mitchell
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTopuria
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mitchell targets the head (60% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Topuria targets the head (96% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mitchell
RND
Topuria
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Topuria · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
Topuria · Last 5
Upcoming
Justin GaethjeUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06