UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Welterweight
VS
68%
McGregor
32%
Diaz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:12
Conor
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22 – 6
5'9"74" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 74
ND
Nate Diaz
22 – 13
Well-Rounded41 yrsSouthpaw76" reach6'0"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McGregor

McGregor holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Diaz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

McGregor's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

McGregor
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
37+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
McGregor
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.4
35.3
68.9
Performance Avg
53.4
67
Quality of Victory
50
100
Momentum Score
100
McGregor
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.9
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
8 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
49
3
Body
4
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
30Distance39
3Clinch10
0Ground5
McGregor
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
McGregor
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/28 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
McGregor
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
McGregor
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
75%
8
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
10
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

McGregor
Diaz
Striking9.4 / 2.4Volume3.0 / 3.2Grappling0.5 / 5.6Wrestling0.3 / 3.9Submission0.0 / 6.3Pressure7.7 / 7.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
McGregor
Strike Zones
Diaz
McGregor
Attacking
29HEAD3BODY1LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
49HEAD4BODY1LEGS54 absorbed
Diaz
Attacking
49HEAD4BODY1LEGS54 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD3BODY1LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McGregor targets the head (88% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (91% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

McGregor
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0

McGregor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W6.3W5.1W5.1W5.5W2.1L4.5W5.1W3.4L5.0W3.4L5.3L2013-042015-012016-082021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Diaz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W6.0L5.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.7L4.6W7.1W7.5L4.5W4.8L6.6L5.9W2007-062009-092011-122016-032022-09
WinLossTrend

McGregor · Last 5

Upcoming
Max Holloway
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

Diaz · Last 5

W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08

News & Media

Conor McGregor · Nate Diaz
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