METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Welterweight
VS
66%
McGregor
34%
Diaz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:12
★ Official Result
Nate DiazwinsSubmissionR2 · 4:12
def. Conor McGregor · UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
McGregor holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Diaz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
McGregor's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
McGregorDiaz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
McGregor
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
74"
Reach
+76"
38+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
McGregor
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.5
35.3
67.0
Performance Avg
53.4
67
Quality of Victory
50
85
Momentum Score
100
McGregor
Diaz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
7.6
Style: Pressure
7.0
2.9
Style: Volume
3.2
8 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
49
3
Body
4
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
30Distance39
3Clinch10
0Ground5
McGregor
Diaz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
5.6
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.3
0
Submission wins
10
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
McGregor
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/28 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
McGregor
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
McGregor
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
75%
8
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
10
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
McGregor
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
McGregorDiaz
Strike Zones
McGregor
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
54 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
54 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯McGregor targets the head (88% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (91% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
McGregor
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
McGregor · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierUFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovSubmission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08