★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
8 Jul 2023
Featherweight
VS
49%
Volkanovski
51%
Rodriguez
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:19
Alexander
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
28 – 4
5'6"71" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 64
Yair
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21 – 6
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'11"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rodriguez

This is a genuine toss-up — Volkanovski at 49% vs Rodriguez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Volkanovski has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Volkanovski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
71"
37
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
66.4
59.8
Performance Avg
60.2
44
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
100
Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.5
61%
Strike Accuracy
48%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
8
3
Body
5
10
Leg
10
RangeRange
19Distance23
3Clinch0
15Ground0
Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
62
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
16/27 fights
Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
46%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Volkanovski
Rodriguez
Striking5.0 / 5.1Volume7.0 / 5.8Grappling1.6 / 2.0Wrestling1.1 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 0.9Pressure4.8 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Volkanovski
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Volkanovski
Attacking
24HEAD3BODY10LEGS37 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD5BODY10LEGS23 absorbed
Rodriguez
Attacking
8HEAD5BODY10LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD3BODY10LEGS37 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (65% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Rodriguez targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Volkanovski
RND
Rodriguez
0/0R00/0

Volkanovski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.2W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W5.6W5.6W5.9W5.9W5.6W7.5L6.8W3.5L4.5L5.8W5.8W2016-112018-122022-042024-022026-01
WinLossTrend

Rodriguez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.4W5.9W4.7W5.1W4.8L6.0W5.0W6.6L6.4W5.2W4.2L4.1L4.5W2014-112016-082019-102023-072025-04
WinLossTrend

Volkanovski · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · KO · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Josh EmmettRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Brian OrtegaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07

News & Media

Alexander Volkanovski · Yair Rodriguez
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