Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Featherweight

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez

Las Vegas, USA

8 Jul 2023

Featherweight

49%

Volkanovski

51%

Rodriguez

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 3 · 4:19

Alexander Volkanovski

"The Great"

28 – 4

5'6"71" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 64

Yair Rodriguez

"El Pantera"

21 – 6

Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'11"

CFR 66

★ Official Result

Alexander VolkanovskiwinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:19

def. Yair Rodriguez · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Rodriguez

→

Actual result

Volkanovski wins

KO/TKO · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Volkanovski at 49% vs Rodriguez at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Risk flags

Volkanovski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodriguez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

VolkanovskiRodriguez

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'6"

Height

+5'11"

71"

Reach

71"

Age

+33

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

64.0

66.4

59.8

Performance Avg

60.2

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.0

/ 10

5.1

/ 10

4.8

Style: Pressure

5.4

7.0

Style: Volume

5.8

5 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

4 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

19Distance23

3Clinch0

15Ground0

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.6

/ 10

2.0

/ 10

1.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.4

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.9

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.5 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R3.0 stoppage

3 fights ago

Last KO loss

2 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/32 fights

Chin rating based on

16/27 fights

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

Upcoming

W · Dec · R5

L · KO · R2

L · KO · R1

Last 5

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

L · KO · R3

W · Sub · R2

W · KO · R1

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

33%

46%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Volkanovski

Rodriguez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

5.1

1.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.0

1.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.4

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.9

4.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.4

7.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.8

Volkanovski

Strike Zones

Rodriguez

Volkanovski

Attacking

37 landed

Absorbing

23 absorbed

Rodriguez

Attacking

23 landed

Absorbing

37 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Volkanovski targets the head (65% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 65% of strikes there

🎯Rodriguez targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Volkanovski

RND

Rodriguez

0/0R00/0

Volkanovski · Last 5

Upcoming

Movsar Evloev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10

W · Dec · R5

Diego Lopes

Decision

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01

W · Dec · R5

Diego Lopes

Decision

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

L · KO · R2

Ilia Topuria

KO/TKO

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

L · KO · R1

Islam Makhachev

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Rodriguez · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Patricio Pitbull

Decision

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

L · Sub · R3

Brian Ortega

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

L · KO · R3

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07

W · Sub · R2

Josh Emmett

Submission

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02

W · KO · R1

Brian Ortega

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07

News & Media

Alexander Volkanovski · Yair Rodriguez

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