UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Wichita, USA
9 Mar 2019
Heavyweight
VS
50%
Ivanov
50%
Rothwell
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ivanov
This is a genuine toss-up — Ivanov at 50% vs Rothwell at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Rothwell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Rothwell has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rothwell has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ivanov
Rothwell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+78"
39+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ivanov
Rothwell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.2
27.0
30.0
Performance Avg
49.7
25
Quality of Victory
48
50
Momentum Score
45
Ivanov
Rothwell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
22
7
Body
4
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
24Distance32
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Ivanov
Rothwell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ivanov
Rothwell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
34
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/25 fights
Chin rating based on
17/53 fights
Ivanov
Rothwell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Ivanov
Rothwell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
78%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ivanov
Rothwell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
IvanovRothwell
Strike Zones
Ivanov
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedRothwell
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ivanov targets the head (63% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Rothwell targets the head (67% of attacks) — Ivanov absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ivanov
RND
Rothwell
0/0R00/0
Ivanov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ivanov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 5.1Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Augusto SakaiRating 5.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7Decision
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
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W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 5.2KO/TKO
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