UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Norfolk, USA
11 Nov 2017
Middleweight
VS
59%
Stewart
41%
Roberson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stewart
This is a genuine toss-up — Stewart at 59% vs Roberson at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Stewart throws more volume but Roberson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Stewart's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Roberson has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Stewart
Roberson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
74"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stewart
Roberson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.9
18.7
42.3
Performance Avg
38.3
43
Quality of Victory
37
68
Momentum Score
25
Stewart
Roberson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
55%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
12
0
Body
5
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance5
2Clinch9
0Ground3
Stewart
Roberson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stewart
Roberson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
8
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/20 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Stewart
Roberson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Stewart
Roberson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stewart
Roberson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
StewartRoberson
Strike Zones
Stewart
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedRoberson
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stewart targets the head (50% of attacks) — Roberson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Roberson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Stewart absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stewart
RND
Roberson
0/0R00/0
Stewart · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Roberson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.8WinLossTrend
Stewart · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
Upcoming
Eryk AndersUFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · Sub · R1
Maki PitoloRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Roberson · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Marvin VettoriRating 2.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
W · Sub · R3
Roman KopylovRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11