UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Featherweight
VS
67%
Miller
33%
Hirota
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CM
Cole Miller
"Magrinho"
21 – 11
6'1"73" reachOrthodox42 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 18
MH
Mizuto Hirota
"Pugnus"
18 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 9

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

Miller holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Hirota has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Hirota has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Miller's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Miller
Hirota
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'7"
73"+
Reach
67"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Hirota
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.6
8.6
49.0
Performance Avg
21.7
47
Quality of Victory
25
49
Momentum Score
15
Miller
Hirota
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
31%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
14
1
Body
3
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground11
Miller
Hirota
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Hirota
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
90
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/28 fights
Miller
Hirota
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
15
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Miller
Hirota
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Hirota
Striking2.0 / 0.3Volume2.6 / 8.3Grappling6.1 / 2.4Wrestling4.3 / 1.7Submission7.0 / 0.0Pressure7.2 / 0.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
6.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
7.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.5
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Miller
Strike Zones
Hirota
Miller
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY1LEGS18 absorbed
Hirota
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY1LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (57% of attacks) — Hirota absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Hirota targets the head (78% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Hirota
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.0W4.5W3.2L5.5W5.0W1.5L5.0W5.2W5.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W6.6L5.7L5.5L2007-062009-092012-032014-012016-12
WinLossTrend

Hirota · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.9L5.5L4.5W7.0L5.5L5.7L2013-032013-062016-122017-062018-022018-12
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mizuto HirotaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Upcoming
Jim Alers
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · Sub · R2
Sam SiciliaRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01

Hirota · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Christos GiagosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Ross PearsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Cole MillerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
Upcoming
Teruto Ishihara
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Cole Miller · Mizuto Hirota
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