UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann
Nashville, USA
1 Apr 2009
Middleweight
VS
87%
Almeida
13%
Horwich
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Almeida
Almeida is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Almeida has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Striking split: Almeida throws more volume but Horwich connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Almeida's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Almeida
Horwich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
49
Age
+47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Almeida
Horwich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.0
2.7
45.1
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
72
Momentum Score
0
Almeida
Horwich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.3
49%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
1
1
Body
3
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
10Distance2
1Clinch5
0Ground0
Almeida
Horwich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Almeida
Horwich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
2/55 fights
Almeida
Horwich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Almeida
Horwich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Almeida
Horwich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AlmeidaHorwich
Strike Zones
Almeida
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHorwich
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Almeida targets the head (91% of attacks) — Horwich absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Horwich targets the body (43% of attacks) — Almeida absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Almeida
RND
Horwich
0/0R00/0
Almeida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Horwich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Almeida · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Mike PyleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
W · Dec · R3
TJ GrantRating 4.5Decision
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · 2010-12
L · Sub · R1
Matt HughesRating 1.5Submission
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6Submission
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · Dec · R3
Kendall GroveRating 4.5Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08
Horwich · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Ricardo AlmeidaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann · 2009-04
L · Dec · R3
Dan MillerRating 5.5Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10