METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
76%
Nelson
24%
Thatch
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:54
★ Official Result
Gunnar NelsonwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:54
def. Brandon Thatch · UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nelson
→
Actual result
Nelson wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Nelson is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Thatch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thatch has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NelsonThatch
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nelson
Thatch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Switch
Nelson
Thatch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
17.8
52.8
Performance Avg
49.3
46
Quality of Victory
60
61
Momentum Score
33
Nelson
Thatch
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.3
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
7.5
Style: Pressure
8.0
2.9
Style: Volume
0.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
3
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch3
2Ground0
Nelson
Thatch
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
8.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
8
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Thatch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
52
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/16 fights
Nelson
Thatch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Thatch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
8
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Thatch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
NelsonThatch
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedThatch
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Thatch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Thatch targets the legs (63% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Thatch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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Bryan BarberenaSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsDecision
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Thatch · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Niko PriceSubmission
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Siyar BahadurzadaSubmission
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonSubmission
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · Sub · R4
Benson HendersonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · KO · R1
Paulo ThiagoKO/TKO
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