UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Welterweight
VS
76%
Nelson
24%
Thatch
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
Nelson is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Thatch has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Thatch throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Thatch has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Thatch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
72"
Reach
+74"
37+
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Switch
Nelson
Thatch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
17.8
52.8
Performance Avg
49.3
46
Quality of Victory
60
61
Momentum Score
33
Nelson
Thatch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.4
69%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
3
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch3
2Ground0
Nelson
Thatch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Thatch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
52
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/16 fights
Nelson
Thatch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
W · KO · R1
Nelson
Thatch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
8
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Thatch
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
NelsonThatch
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedThatch
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Thatch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Thatch targets the legs (63% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Thatch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Thatch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Thatch · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 2.2Submission
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12
L · Sub · R3
Siyar BahadurzadaRating 4Submission
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
L · Sub · R1
Gunnar NelsonRating 2.6Submission
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · Sub · R4
Benson HendersonRating 3.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · KO · R1
Paulo ThiagoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11