UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Miami, USA
12 Apr 2025
Middleweight
VS
34%
Dumas
66%
Oleksiejczuk
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oleksiejczuk
Oleksiejczuk holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Dumas has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oleksiejczuk has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Oleksiejczuk has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dumas's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oleksiejczuk has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
74"
30+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.6
54.6
30.0
Performance Avg
55.3
25
Quality of Victory
53
35
Momentum Score
52
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.5
32%
Strike Accuracy
54%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
27
2
Body
7
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance13
0Clinch0
0Ground21
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
36
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/15 fights
Chin rating based on
19/31 fights
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dumas
Oleksiejczuk
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
DumasOleksiejczuk
Strike Zones
Dumas
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedOleksiejczuk
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dumas targets the body (67% of attacks) — Oleksiejczuk absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Oleksiejczuk targets the head (79% of attacks) — Dumas absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dumas
RND
Oleksiejczuk
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dumas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Oleksiejczuk · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Dumas · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jackson McVeyRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Sub · R2
Donte JohnsonRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
Upcoming
Zach ReeseUFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Denis TiuliulinRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
Oleksiejczuk · Last 5
Upcoming
Abus MagomedovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Sedriques DumasRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08