UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Lightweight
VS
55%
Poirier
45%
Chandler
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Poirier
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 55% vs Chandler at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Poirier throws more volume but Chandler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chandler has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Poirier
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
72"+
Reach
71"
37+
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Poirier
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
50.3
58.2
Performance Avg
45.9
50
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
46
Poirier
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.9
54%
Strike Accuracy
57%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
0
0
Body
2
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Poirier
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Poirier
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Poirier
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
100%
10
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Chandler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
PoirierChandler
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedChandler
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (88% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the body (100% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Chandler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Chandler · Last 5
Upcoming
Mauricio RuffyUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05