UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Lightweight
VS
52%
Gordon
48%
Madsen
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:42
Jared
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21 – 9
5'9"68" reachOrthodox37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 42
MM
Mark Madsen
"The Olympian"
12 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'8"
CFR 39

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gordon

This is a genuine toss-up — Gordon at 52% vs Madsen at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gordon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gordon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Madsen has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Gordon
Madsen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
68"
Reach
+72"
37+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gordon
Madsen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.1
39.0
42.8
Performance Avg
46.9
36
Quality of Victory
34
63
Momentum Score
79
Gordon
Madsen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
23
5
Body
12
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance16
10Clinch19
4Ground0
Gordon
Madsen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gordon
Madsen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
66
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/30 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Gordon
Madsen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
79
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Gordon
Madsen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
25%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gordon
Madsen
Striking4.4 / 3.8Volume6.4 / 7.3Grappling1.6 / 1.8Wrestling1.1 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 3.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
Gordon
Strike Zones
Madsen
Gordon
Attacking
27HEAD5BODY4LEGS36 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD12BODY0LEGS35 absorbed
Madsen
Attacking
23HEAD12BODY0LEGS35 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD5BODY4LEGS36 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gordon targets the head (75% of attacks) — Madsen absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Madsen targets the head (66% of attacks) — Gordon absorbs 66% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gordon
RND
Madsen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gordon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W2.5L4.6L4.5W2.9L4.5W4.5W5.2W5.5L4.6W7.2L5.2W6.2L5.2W4.8L1.9L2017-062019-112022-082025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Madsen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W4.5W5.0W4.7W5.5L1.9L2019-092020-032021-082022-042022-112023-11
WinLossTrend

Gordon · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 4.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Thiago MoisesRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · KO · R1
Mark MadsenRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Madsen · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03

News & Media

Jared Gordon · Mark Madsen
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