★ Championship Bout · Light Heavyweight
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Sept 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
55%
Reyes
45%
Blachowicz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reyes
This is a genuine toss-up — Reyes at 55% vs Blachowicz at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Reyes's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Blachowicz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reyes
Blachowicz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
77"
Reach
+78"
36+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Reyes
Blachowicz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
46.4
56.3
Performance Avg
53.0
49
Quality of Victory
48
71
Momentum Score
20
Reyes
Blachowicz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
51%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
23
1
Body
1
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance22
0Clinch1
0Ground3
Reyes
Blachowicz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.5
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reyes
Blachowicz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
54
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
22/40 fights
Reyes
Blachowicz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
20
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R3
Reyes
Blachowicz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
58%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reyes
Blachowicz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
ReyesBlachowicz
Strike Zones
Reyes
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedBlachowicz
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reyes targets the head (55% of attacks) — Blachowicz absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Blachowicz targets the head (88% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reyes
RND
Blachowicz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Blachowicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Reyes · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R2
Anthony SmithRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
Blachowicz · Last 5
Upcoming
Bogdan GuskovDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Alex PereiraRating 7.6Decision
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Upcoming
Magomed AnkalaevDecision
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · 2022-12
W · KO · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05