UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch
Pittsburgh, USA
16 Sept 2017
Welterweight
VS
75%
Usman
25%
Moraes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:48
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
6'0"76" reachSwitch39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
SM
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'0"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Usman

Usman is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Usman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Moraes has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Usman
Moraes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"+
Reach
72"
39+
Age
43
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Usman
Moraes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
19.0
61.2
Performance Avg
47.0
46
Quality of Victory
37
55
Momentum Score
95
Usman
Moraes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
10
4
Body
3
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
15Distance13
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Usman
Moraes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.6
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Moraes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
30
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
14/20 fights
Usman
Moraes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
95
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Usman
Moraes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
3
11
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Usman
Moraes
Striking4.2 / 2.5Volume7.2 / 5.2Grappling2.1 / 4.2Wrestling1.5 / 2.9Submission0.6 / 3.8Pressure4.7 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
Usman
Strike Zones
Moraes
Usman
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY4LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Moraes
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY4LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (50% of attacks) — Moraes absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Moraes targets the head (77% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Usman
RND
Moraes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Moraes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W2.6L4.6W5.2W5.5L4.2L4.0L2012-062015-122018-022019-11
WinLossTrend

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

Moraes · Last 5

L · KO · R3
James KrauseRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R3
Warlley AlvesRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Ben SaundersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
W · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

News & Media

Kamaru Usman · Sergio Moraes
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