METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Los Angeles, USA
4 Aug 2012
Lightweight
VS
56%
Lauzon
44%
Varner
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:44
★ Official Result
Joe LauzonwinsSubmissionR3 · 2:44
def. Jamie Varner · UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lauzon
→
Actual result
Lauzon wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Lauzon at 56% vs Varner at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Varner has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LauzonVarner
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lauzon
Varner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lauzon
Varner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
13.9
51.5
Performance Avg
41.1
49
Quality of Victory
46
59
Momentum Score
33
Lauzon
Varner
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.4
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
7.3
Style: Pressure
5.7
2.2
Style: Volume
3.3
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
14
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance16
0Clinch1
2Ground0
Lauzon
Varner
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
4.7
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
7
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lauzon
Varner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Lauzon
Varner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lauzon
Varner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
7
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lauzon
Varner
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
LauzonVarner
Strike Zones
Lauzon
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedVarner
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (100% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Varner targets the head (82% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lauzon
RND
Varner
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lauzon · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherKO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayDecision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberSubmission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseKO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloKO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauDecision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardDecision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12