UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Los Angeles, USA
4 Aug 2012
Lightweight
VS
56%
Lauzon
44%
Varner
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:44
JL
Joe Lauzon
28 – 16
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
JV
Jamie Varner
21 – 11
Well-Rounded4-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lauzon

This is a genuine toss-up — Lauzon at 56% vs Varner at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Varner has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Varner has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lauzon
Varner
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
42
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lauzon
Varner
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
13.9
51.5
Performance Avg
41.1
49
Quality of Victory
46
59
Momentum Score
33
Lauzon
Varner
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
14
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance16
0Clinch1
2Ground0
Lauzon
Varner
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lauzon
Varner
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
9/32 fights
Lauzon
Varner
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
33
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lauzon
Varner
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
7
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lauzon
Varner
Striking4.4 / 4.0Volume2.2 / 3.3Grappling4.0 / 3.5Wrestling2.8 / 2.4Submission4.7 / 3.3Pressure7.3 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Lauzon
Strike Zones
Varner
Lauzon
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Varner
Attacking
14HEAD3BODY0LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (100% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Varner targets the head (82% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lauzon
RND
Varner
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lauzon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W5.0W2.8L5.2W5.8W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5W5.9L5.6L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.9L4.5W5.5L2.0L2.8L5.5W2006-092010-082013-082016-082019-10
WinLossTrend

Varner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.0L5.0W5.5W4.0L4.5W5.5L2.8L1.5L2.7L2006-082012-082014-022014-12
WinLossTrend

Lauzon · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01

Varner · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12

News & Media

Joe Lauzon · Jamie Varner
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