UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Nottingham, United Kingdom
29 Sept 2012
Welterweight
VS
72%
Mills
28%
Ludwig
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:28
CM
Che Mills
"Beautiful"
16 – 10
6'1"76" reachOrthodox43 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 26
DL
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
21 – 14
Well-Rounded3-fight slide47 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'10"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mills

Mills is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mills has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.

Striking split: Ludwig throws more volume but Mills connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Ludwig has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mills
Ludwig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
70"
43+
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mills
Ludwig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.5
10.1
62.7
Performance Avg
38.0
60
Quality of Victory
34
95
Momentum Score
10
Mills
Ludwig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
39%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
2Clinch1
5Ground0
Mills
Ludwig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mills
Ludwig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/26 fights
Chin rating based on
9/35 fights
Mills
Ludwig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
10
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Mills
Ludwig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mills
Ludwig
Striking10.0 / 3.4Volume1.3 / 6.9Grappling0.0 / 1.8Wrestling0.0 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure9.0 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
Mills
Strike Zones
Ludwig
Mills
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Ludwig
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mills targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ludwig absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Ludwig targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mills absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mills
RND
Ludwig
0/0R00/0

Mills · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W2.8L5.0W2011-112012-042012-09
WinLossTrend

Ludwig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.0
0104.5W5.0W1.9L2.0L4.5W4.5W1.5L1.5L1.5L2003-042010-032012-012012-09
WinLossTrend

Mills · Last 4

Upcoming
Matthew Riddle
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · 2013-02
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R2
Rory MacDonaldRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04
W · KO · R1
Chris CopeRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · 2011-11

Ludwig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Che MillsRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
L · KO · R1
Dan HardyRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · Sub · R1
Josh NeerRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
W · Dec · R3
Nick OsipczakRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · 2010-11

News & Media

Che Mills · Duane Ludwig
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