UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jul 2010
Welterweight
VS
30%
Lytle
70%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:02
CL
Chris Lytle
"Lights Out"
31 – 18
5'11"68" reachOrthodox51 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
MB
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26 – 19
Knockout Artist45 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 43

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Brown

Brown is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brown has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lytle
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
68"
Reach
+75"
51
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lytle
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
42.5
46.2
Performance Avg
54.0
44
Quality of Victory
52
56
Momentum Score
78
Lytle
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
60%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
13 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance5
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Lytle
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lytle
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/49 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Lytle
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
78
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Lytle
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
13
6
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lytle
Brown
Striking2.0 / 8.8Volume3.4 / 2.1Grappling5.5 / 1.2Wrestling3.9 / 0.8Submission6.0 / 1.2Pressure6.4 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
5.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Lytle
Strike Zones
Brown
Lytle
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Brown
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lytle targets the head (83% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lytle
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lytle · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.8L5.8L5.2W5.2W5.5L4.8L5.5L5.5L5.0W4.8L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.6W4.5W5.5L5.5W2000-112005-102008-022010-022011-08
WinLossTrend

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.2W5.0W5.5W2.8L2.8L2.8L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.1W5.2W5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.8L5.5L5.1W4.0L1.5L4.0L5.0W5.2W3.3L5.5L5.2W5.9L5.2W2008-062011-062014-052019-122023-05
WinLossTrend

Lytle · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownRating 5.6
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterRating 5
Submission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02

Brown · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05

News & Media

Chris Lytle · Matt Brown
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