METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jul 2010
Welterweight
VS
30%
Lytle
70%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:02
★ Official Result
Chris LytlewinsSubmissionR2 · 2:02
def. Matt Brown · UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Lytle wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Brown is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LytleBrown
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lytle
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
68"
Reach
+75"
52
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lytle
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
42.5
46.2
Performance Avg
54.0
44
Quality of Victory
52
56
Momentum Score
78
Lytle
Brown
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
8.8
/ 10
6.4
Style: Pressure
7.9
3.4
Style: Volume
2.1
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
13 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance5
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Lytle
Brown
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.5
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.2
6
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lytle
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/49 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Lytle
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
78
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Lytle
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
13
6
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lytle
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
5.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
6.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
LytleBrown
Strike Zones
Lytle
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedBrown
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lytle targets the head (83% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lytle
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lytle · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Dan HardySubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleDecision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraDecision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownSubmission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterSubmission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02
Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeKO/TKO
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