METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Johnson
47%
Bader
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:26
★ Official Result
Anthony JohnsonwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:26
def. Ryan Bader · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Johnson
→
Actual result
Johnson wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 53% vs Bader at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
JohnsonBader
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johnson
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
78"+
Reach
74"
42+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.1
20.1
60.4
Performance Avg
54.2
55
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Bader
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.8
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
5.0
2.6
Style: Volume
6.3
11 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Johnson
Bader
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johnson
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
10
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
15 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Johnson
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
85%
40%
11
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Bader
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
JohnsonBader
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedBader
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0
Johnson · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Daniel CormierSubmission
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · KO · R1
Ryan BaderKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Jimi ManuwaKO/TKO
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Daniel CormierSubmission
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisDecision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01