UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Johnson
47%
Bader
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Johnson
This is a genuine toss-up — Johnson at 53% vs Bader at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Johnson's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Johnson
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
78"+
Reach
74"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.1
20.1
60.4
Performance Avg
54.2
55
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
100
Johnson
Bader
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
11 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
11Ground0
Johnson
Bader
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
10
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
5
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
15 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Johnson
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johnson
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
85%
40%
11
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Johnson
Bader
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
JohnsonBader
Strike Zones
Johnson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedBader
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Johnson
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Bader · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Johnson · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Daniel CormierRating 2.1Submission
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · KO · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Jimi ManuwaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Daniel CormierRating 2.8Submission
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01