UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
13 Oct 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
90%
Davis
10%
Prado
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:29
PD
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
17 – 4
6'2"79" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
WP
Wagner Prado
"Caldeirao"
12 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'0"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Davis

Davis is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Davis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Davis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Davis
Prado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
79"+
Reach
74"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Davis
Prado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
2.1
50.2
Performance Avg
0.0
34
Quality of Victory
0
64
Momentum Score
0
Davis
Prado
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.4
34%
Strike Accuracy
22%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
6
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
4Clinch0
8Ground0
Davis
Prado
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.9
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Davis
Prado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/21 fights
Chin rating based on
3/15 fights
Davis
Prado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Davis
Prado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Davis
Prado
Striking1.5 / 0.0Volume6.8 / 0.0Grappling4.3 / 0.0Wrestling3.0 / 0.0Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure4.6 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Davis
Strike Zones
Prado
Davis
Attacking
6HEAD6BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Prado
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD6BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Davis targets the head (43% of attacks) — Prado absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯Prado targets the body (100% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Davis
RND
Prado
0/0R00/0

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.9W5.5L2010-022010-112012-102014-042015-01
WinLossTrend

Prado · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.8
0102.8L2.8L2012-102013-01
WinLossTrend

Davis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Vinny MagalhaesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04

Prado · Last 3

L · Sub · R2
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 2.8
Submission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · 2013-01
L · Sub · R2
Phil DavisRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
Upcoming
Phil Davis
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08

News & Media

Phil Davis · Wagner Prado
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