The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jul 2018
Lightweight
VS
88%
Pena
12%
Smullen
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:32
LP
Luis Pena
"Violent Bob Ross"
9 – 3
6'3"75" reachSouthpaw32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
RS
Richie Smullen
3 – 1
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'9"
CFR 3

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pena

Pena is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pena has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.

Smullen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Pena
Smullen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
75"+
Reach
68"
32+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Pena
Smullen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
2.5
46.5
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
68
Momentum Score
0
Pena
Smullen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.8
44%
Strike Accuracy
78%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
8Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Pena
Smullen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pena
Smullen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/12 fights
Chin rating based on
1/4 fights
Pena
Smullen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
0
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Pena
Smullen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pena
Smullen
Striking3.3 / 0.0Volume6.0 / 0.0Grappling3.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.1 / 0.0Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Pena
Strike Zones
Smullen
Pena
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 absorbed
Smullen
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY3LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pena targets the head (100% of attacks) — Smullen absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Smullen targets the head (43% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pena
RND
Smullen
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Pena · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.7L6.4W4.0L4.5W2018-072019-032019-102020-062021-04
WinLossTrend

Pena · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alexander MunozRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R3
Khama WorthyRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
W · Dec · R3
Steve GarciaRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · KO · R3
Matt WimanRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06

Smullen · Last 1

L · Sub · R1
Luis PenaRating 1.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · 2018-07

News & Media

Luis Pena · Richie Smullen
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