UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Bantamweight
VS
52%
Alcantara
48%
Rivera
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
IA
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
35 – 10
5'9"71" reachSouthpaw45 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
JR
Jimmie Rivera
"El Terror"
23 – 5
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'4"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Alcantara

This is a genuine toss-up — Alcantara at 52% vs Rivera at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alcantara has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Rivera throws more volume but Alcantara connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alcantara's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alcantara
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
71"+
Reach
68"
45
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Alcantara
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
15.8
48.0
Performance Avg
43.5
41
Quality of Victory
30
49
Momentum Score
58
Alcantara
Rivera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
37%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
8
6
Body
7
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
20Distance14
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Alcantara
Rivera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alcantara
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
11/28 fights
Alcantara
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
58
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Alcantara
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
14%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alcantara
Rivera
Striking4.2 / 2.7Volume5.2 / 8.1Grappling2.8 / 2.1Wrestling2.0 / 1.4Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 2.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Alcantara
Strike Zones
Rivera
Alcantara
Attacking
11HEAD6BODY4LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD7BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Rivera
Attacking
8HEAD7BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD6BODY4LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alcantara targets the head (52% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the head (47% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alcantara
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0

Alcantara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W5.2W1.8L5.5L5.0W4.2L2011-082014-022016-012018-022018-08
WinLossTrend

Rivera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W6.5L7.0L4.5W6.0L2015-072016-092018-092020-072021-02
WinLossTrend

Alcantara · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8
Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03

Rivera · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Petr YanRating 7
Decision
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
John DodsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

News & Media

Iuri Alcantara · Jimmie Rivera
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