UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Sydney, Australia
8 Feb 2025
Welterweight
VS
53%
Matthews
47%
Prado
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 53% vs Prado at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Prado has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Prado throws more volume but Matthews connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Matthews
Prado
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
69"
31
Age
+23
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Prado
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
48.9
48.3
Performance Avg
42.7
37
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
26
Matthews
Prado
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
7
10
Body
6
5
Leg
6
RangeRange
20Distance16
6Clinch3
0Ground0
Matthews
Prado
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Prado
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
90
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Matthews
Prado
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
26
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Matthews
Prado
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Prado
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
MatthewsPrado
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedPrado
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (42% of attacks) — Prado absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Prado targets the head (37% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 37% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Prado
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Prado · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.1WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
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Prado · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Charles RadtkeRating 6.7Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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L · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.9Decision
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