Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

Sydney, Australia

8 Feb 2025

Welterweight

53%

Matthews

47%

Prado

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Jake Matthews

"The Celtic Kid"

22 – 8

5'11"73" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 55

Francisco Prado

12 – 5

Knockout Artist4-fight slide24 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'10"

CFR 49

★ Official Result

Jake MatthewswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Francisco Prado · UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Matthews

→

Actual result

Matthews wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Matthews at 53% vs Prado at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Prado has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Risk flags

Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MatthewsPrado

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Matthews

Prado

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

73"+

Reach

69"

Age

+24

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Matthews

Prado

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

55.2

48.9

48.4

Performance Avg

42.7

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Matthews

Prado

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

/ 10

10.0

/ 10

5.1

Style: Pressure

7.5

5.3

Style: Volume

0.3

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

20Distance16

6Clinch3

0Ground0

Matthews

Prado

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.2

/ 10

0.0

/ 10

2.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.0

3.8

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Matthews

Prado

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

18 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

24/30 fights

Chin rating based on

6/17 fights

Matthews

Prado

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

Current form

4-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

Matthews

Prado

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

44%

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matthews

Prado

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

10.0

4.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.0

2.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.0

3.8

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.5

5.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

0.3

Matthews

Strike Zones

Prado

Matthews

Attacking

26 landed

Absorbing

19 absorbed

Prado

Attacking

19 landed

Absorbing

26 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Matthews targets the head (42% of attacks) — Prado absorbs 42% of strikes there

🎯Prado targets the head (37% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 37% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matthews

RND

Prado

0/0R00/0

Matthews · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Carlston Harris

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Sub · R3

Neil Magny

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09

W · Sub · R1

Chidi Njokuani

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07

W · Dec · R3

Francisco Prado

Decision

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

W · Dec · R3

Phil Rowe

Decision

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

Prado · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Charles Radtke

Decision

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04

L · Dec · R3

Nikolay Veretennikov

Decision

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07

L · Dec · R3

Jake Matthews

Decision

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

L · Dec · R3

Daniel Zellhuber

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02

W · KO · R1

Ottman Azaitar

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07

News & Media

Jake Matthews · Francisco Prado

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