UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Portland, USA
29 Aug 2009
Heavyweight
VS
69%
Gonzaga
31%
Tuchscherer
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gonzaga
Gonzaga holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Tuchscherer has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gonzaga has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Gonzaga has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gonzaga's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tuchscherer has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
76"
Reach
76"
47+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.6
8.2
53.9
Performance Avg
25.0
54
Quality of Victory
25
59
Momentum Score
22
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.1
48%
Strike Accuracy
17%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
20Ground0
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
8
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/28 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
22
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
92%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gonzaga
Tuchscherer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
GonzagaTuchscherer
Strike Zones
Gonzaga
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTuchscherer
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gonzaga targets the head (91% of attacks) — Tuchscherer absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gonzaga
RND
Tuchscherer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gonzaga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Tuchscherer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.6WinLossTrend
Gonzaga · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · 2016-04
W · Dec · R3
Konstantin ErokhinRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R3
Mirko FilipovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6Decision
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · 2014-01
Tuchscherer · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Mark HuntRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
L · KO · R1
Brendan SchaubRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Dec · R3
Tim HagueRating 4.5Decision
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08