UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Featherweight
VS
24%
Bermudez
76%
Stephens
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Stephens
Stephens is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Bermudez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bermudez's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Bermudez
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+71"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bermudez
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.4
45.0
43.2
Performance Avg
41.1
33
Quality of Victory
40
50
Momentum Score
76
Bermudez
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.3
46%
Strike Accuracy
42%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
8
0
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground6
Bermudez
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Bermudez
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Bermudez
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Bermudez
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
47%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bermudez
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
BermudezStephens
Strike Zones
Bermudez
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedStephens
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bermudez targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (89% of attacks) — Bermudez absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bermudez
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Bermudez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Bermudez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Te EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Chan Sung JungRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · 2017-02
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10