UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
Las Vegas, USA
28 Nov 2020
Featherweight
VS
54%
Pearce
46%
III
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:28
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pearce
This is a genuine toss-up — Pearce at 54% vs III at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pearce has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Pearce throws more volume but III connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pearce's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pearce
III
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
69"
34
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Pearce
III
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.8
37.8
47.4
Performance Avg
35.0
42
Quality of Victory
25
56
Momentum Score
50
Pearce
III
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
61%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
7
3
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance9
3Clinch2
18Ground1
Pearce
III
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pearce
III
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/21 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Pearce
III
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
50
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Pearce
III
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pearce
III
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
PearceIII
Strike Zones
Pearce
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedIII
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pearce targets the head (83% of attacks) — III absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯III targets the head (58% of attacks) — Pearce absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pearce
RND
III
0/0R00/0
Pearce · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
III · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Pearce · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Pat SabatiniRating 2.5Submission
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L · Dec · R3
David OnamaRating 6.3Decision
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L · Sub · R2
Joanderson BritoRating 4.3Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 5Decision
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W · KO · R2
Makwan AmirkhaniRating 5.3KO/TKO
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III · Last 5
Upcoming
Luke RileyUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Dakota HopeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
Upcoming
Danny ChavezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Prochazka · 2021-05
L · KO · R2
Jonathan PearceRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · 2020-11