UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2020
Welterweight
VS
39%
Oliveira
61%
Griffin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Griffin
Griffin holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Oliveira has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oliveira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
76"
Reach
76"
38+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.9
46.4
46.5
Performance Avg
39.0
43
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
74
Oliveira
Griffin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
2
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
3Distance2
3Clinch2
2Ground0
Oliveira
Griffin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/34 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Oliveira
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
74
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
38%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Griffin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
OliveiraGriffin
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGriffin
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (75% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the head (50% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Griffin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07