UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Milwaukee, USA
31 Aug 2013
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Rothwell
42%
Vera
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rothwell
This is a genuine toss-up — Rothwell at 58% vs Vera at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Rothwell throws more volume but Vera connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rothwell's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Vera has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rothwell
Vera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
78"
44+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rothwell
Vera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
27.0
19.6
49.7
Performance Avg
48.3
48
Quality of Victory
45
45
Momentum Score
100
Rothwell
Vera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
0
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance0
15Clinch2
0Ground0
Rothwell
Vera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rothwell
Vera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/53 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Rothwell
Vera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Rothwell
Vera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
63%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rothwell
Vera
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
RothwellVera
Strike Zones
Rothwell
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedVera
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rothwell targets the head (90% of attacks) — Vera absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Vera targets the body (100% of attacks) — Rothwell absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rothwell
RND
Vera
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rothwell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Vera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rothwell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Chris BarnettRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · 2020-05
W · KO · R2
Stefan StruveRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
Vera · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Ben RothwellRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
L · KO · R4
Mauricio RuaRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
W · Dec · R3
Eliot MarshallRating 4.5Decision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
Upcoming
Thiago SilvaUFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
L · KO · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03