UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov
Las Vegas, USA
1 Jul 2023
Lightweight
VS
36%
Ismagulov
64%
Dawson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dawson
Dawson holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Ismagulov has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dawson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Dawson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dawson has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ismagulov
Dawson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
72"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Ismagulov
Dawson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.4
64.1
43.6
Performance Avg
57.5
25
Quality of Victory
39
65
Momentum Score
100
Ismagulov
Dawson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.2
42%
Strike Accuracy
53%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
2
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ismagulov
Dawson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ismagulov
Dawson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
56
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/27 fights
Chin rating based on
15/27 fights
Ismagulov
Dawson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Ismagulov
Dawson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
58%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
5
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ismagulov
Dawson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.2
2.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
9.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
IsmagulovDawson
Strike Zones
Ismagulov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedDawson
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ismagulov targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Dawson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ismagulov absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ismagulov
RND
Dawson
0/0R00/0
Ismagulov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Ismagulov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Guram KutateladzeRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Rafael AlvesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Thiago MoisesRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang · 2019-08
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
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L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2Decision
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