METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 73: Stacked
Sacramento, USA
7 Jul 2007
Heavyweight
VS
62%
Nogueira
38%
Herring
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Antonio Rodrigo NogueirawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Heath Herring · UFC 73: Stacked
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nogueira
→
Actual result
Nogueira wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nogueira holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Herring has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nogueira has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 27 points.
Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Herring connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nogueira's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NogueiraHerring
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nogueira
Herring
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
+78"
50
Age
+48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nogueira
Herring
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
11.9
49.3
Performance Avg
31.0
52
Quality of Victory
25
91
Momentum Score
35
Nogueira
Herring
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
0.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
3
5
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
18Distance4
2Clinch2
1Ground0
Nogueira
Herring
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nogueira
Herring
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
5/44 fights
Nogueira
Herring
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
35
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nogueira
Herring
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nogueira
Herring
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
NogueiraHerring
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedHerring
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nogueira targets the head (76% of attacks) — Herring absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Herring targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nogueira
RND
Herring
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nogueira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Herring · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 5.5Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R2
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
W · Sub · R2
Dave HermanRating 5.2Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5Submission
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12
Herring · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brock LesnarRating 5.5Decision
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy · 2008-08
W · Dec · R3
Cheick KongoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
L · Dec · R3
Antonio Rodrigo NogueiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad ImesRating 4.5Decision
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04
L · Dec · R3
Jake O'BrienRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01