UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
San Jose, USA
20 Apr 2013
Heavyweight
VS
45%
Mir
55%
Cormier
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cormier
This is a genuine toss-up — Mir at 45% vs Cormier at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Cormier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mir's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mir
Cormier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
79"+
Reach
72"
47
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mir
Cormier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.2
25.9
57.4
Performance Avg
68.1
56
Quality of Victory
61
88
Momentum Score
100
Mir
Cormier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
55%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
5 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
10
8
Body
7
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
4Clinch15
0Ground0
Mir
Cormier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mir
Cormier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
8
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/29 fights
Chin rating based on
15/25 fights
Mir
Cormier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R4
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Mir
Cormier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
81%
64%
5
KO / TKO Wins
3
8
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mir
Cormier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
MirCormier
Strike Zones
Mir
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedCormier
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mir targets the body (73% of attacks) — Cormier absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Cormier targets the head (56% of attacks) — Mir absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mir
RND
Cormier
0/0R00/0
Mir · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Cormier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Mir · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Mark HuntRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2Decision
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Todd DuffeeRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Alistair OvereemRating 5.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
Cormier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stipe MiocicRating 6.6Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · KO · R4
Stipe MiocicRating 4.4KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · Sub · R2
Derrick LewisRating 6.3Submission
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · KO · R1
Stipe MiocicRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07
W · KO · R2
Volkan OezdemirRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01