UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
20 Jan 2021
Flyweight
VS
94%
Figueiredo
6%
Rivera
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Figueiredo
Figueiredo is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Figueiredo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Striking split: Rivera throws more volume but Figueiredo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rivera has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Figueiredo
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+72"
36
Age
+31
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Figueiredo
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.3
1.8
43.7
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
66
Momentum Score
0
Figueiredo
Rivera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
63%
Strike Accuracy
26%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
2
Body
3
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance10
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Figueiredo
Rivera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Figueiredo
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
42
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Figueiredo
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Figueiredo
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Figueiredo
Rivera
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
FigueiredoRivera
Strike Zones
Figueiredo
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedRivera
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Figueiredo targets the head (38% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 38% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the head (57% of attacks) — Figueiredo absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Figueiredo
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0
Figueiredo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rivera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.1WinLossTrend
Figueiredo · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Amir AlbaziRating 2.8Submission
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Sub · R1
Daniel LacerdaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Malcolm GordonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Jerome RiveraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
Rivera · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Zhalgas ZhumagulovRating 1.5Submission
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R1
Ode OsbourneRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · Dec · R3
Francisco FigueiredoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Tyson NamRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09