★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Featherweight
VS
48%
Holloway
52%
Ortega
Win Probability
Max
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27 – 9
5'11"69" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide35 yrsSwitch69" reach5'8"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortega

This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 48% vs Ortega at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holloway
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Holloway
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.2
62.1
56.8
Performance Avg
53.7
47
Quality of Victory
48
63
Momentum Score
80
Holloway
Ortega
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
10 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
110
Head
22
24
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
126Distance25
7Clinch3
1Ground0
Holloway
Ortega
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.9
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holloway
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
14/21 fights
Holloway
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Holloway
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
52%
88%
10
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holloway
Ortega
Striking5.8 / 5.0Volume4.9 / 2.2Grappling1.7 / 4.3Wrestling1.2 / 3.0Submission0.9 / 5.0Pressure5.8 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Holloway
Strike Zones
Ortega
Holloway
Attacking
110HEAD24BODY0LEGS134 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD5BODY1LEGS28 absorbed
Ortega
Attacking
22HEAD5BODY1LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
110HEAD24BODY0LEGS134 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (82% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Ortega targets the head (79% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 79% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holloway
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0

Holloway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0102.8L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L7.5L5.2W6.2W5.5W5.0W4.5W6.0W6.4W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.7W5.7W5.7W6.8L4.5W7.0L7.0L5.0W6.1W7.0L5.9W5.7W7.1W5.1L5.8W6.9L2012-022014-082017-062021-112026-03
WinLossTrend

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Holloway · Last 5

Upcoming
Conor McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

News & Media

Max Holloway · Brian Ortega
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