METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Toronto, Canada
8 Dec 2018
Featherweight
VS
48%
Holloway
52%
Ortega
Win Probability
★ Official Result
Max HollowaywinsR4 · 5:00
def. Brian Ortega · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ortega
→
Actual result
Holloway wins
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Holloway at 48% vs Ortega at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Holloway's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HollowayOrtega
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holloway
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Holloway
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.9
62.1
57.7
Performance Avg
53.7
48
Quality of Victory
48
63
Momentum Score
80
Holloway
Ortega
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
6.0
Style: Pressure
8.0
4.8
Style: Volume
2.2
11 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
110
Head
22
24
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
126Distance25
7Clinch3
1Ground0
Holloway
Ortega
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.8
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holloway
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
33/36 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Holloway
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Holloway
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
88%
11
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
4
11
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holloway
Ortega
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
HollowayOrtega
Strike Zones
Holloway
Attacking
134 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedOrtega
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
134 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holloway targets the head (82% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Ortega targets the head (79% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holloway
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0
Holloway · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Ortega · Last 5
Upcoming
Renato MoicanoUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07