METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2018
Featherweight
VS
78%
Glenn
22%
Aguilar
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Kevin AguilarwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ricky Glenn · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Glenn
→
Actual result
Aguilar wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Glenn is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Glenn's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GlennAguilar
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Glenn
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
+73"
37+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Glenn
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.7
10.8
36.2
Performance Avg
28.3
34
Quality of Victory
25
65
Momentum Score
35
Glenn
Aguilar
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
3.0
Style: Pressure
1.0
6.8
Style: Volume
8.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
20
4
Body
9
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
23Distance16
5Clinch2
0Ground13
Glenn
Aguilar
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Glenn
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
72
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/31 fights
Chin rating based on
6/22 fights
Glenn
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
35
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Glenn
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Glenn
Aguilar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
GlennAguilar
Strike Zones
Glenn
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedAguilar
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Glenn targets the head (64% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the head (65% of attacks) — Glenn absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Glenn
RND
Aguilar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Glenn · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Song KenanDecision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
L · KO · R1
Christos GiagosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
Upcoming
Grant DawsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
W · KO · R1
Joaquim SilvaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
Aguilar · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tucker LutzDecision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · Dec · R3
Charles RosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · KO · R1
Zubaira TukhugovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Dan IgeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Enrique BarzolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03