METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Bantamweight
VS
68%
Cejudo
32%
Cruz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:58
★ Official Result
Henry CejudowinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:58
def. Dominick Cruz · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cejudo
→
Actual result
Cejudo wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Cejudo holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Cruz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Cejudo's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cruz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CejudoCruz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cejudo
Cruz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
64"
Reach
+68"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cejudo
Cruz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.3
31.2
58.4
Performance Avg
50.3
56
Quality of Victory
37
97
Momentum Score
100
Cejudo
Cruz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.3
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
3.1
6.0
Style: Volume
8.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
11
4
Body
2
9
Leg
6
RangeRange
26Distance17
0Clinch2
8Ground0
Cejudo
Cruz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cejudo
Cruz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
10/28 fights
Cejudo
Cruz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Cejudo
Cruz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
14%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cejudo
Cruz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
CejudoCruz
Strike Zones
Cejudo
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedCruz
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cejudo targets the head (62% of attacks) — Cruz absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Cruz targets the head (58% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cejudo
RND
Cruz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cejudo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzKO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
Cruz · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Marlon VeraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozDecision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Casey KenneyDecision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoKO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Cody GarbrandtDecision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12