★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Bantamweight
VS
67%
Cejudo
33%
Cruz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:58
Henry
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16 – 6
5'4"64" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 65
DC
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
24 – 4
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 31

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cejudo

Cejudo holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Cruz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cejudo's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cruz has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cejudo
Cruz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'8"
64"
Reach
+68"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cejudo
Cruz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
31.2
57.5
Performance Avg
50.3
54
Quality of Victory
37
97
Momentum Score
100
Cejudo
Cruz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
39%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
11
4
Body
2
9
Leg
6
RangeRange
26Distance17
0Clinch2
8Ground0
Cejudo
Cruz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cejudo
Cruz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
54
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
10/28 fights
Cejudo
Cruz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Cejudo
Cruz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
14%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cejudo
Cruz
Striking5.3 / 2.8Volume6.0 / 8.3Grappling1.4 / 2.1Wrestling1.0 / 1.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Cejudo
Strike Zones
Cruz
Cejudo
Attacking
21HEAD4BODY9LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY6LEGS19 absorbed
Cruz
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY6LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD4BODY9LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cejudo targets the head (62% of attacks) — Cruz absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Cruz targets the head (58% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cejudo
RND
Cruz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cejudo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.1W6.5L6.8L6.1L7.0L2014-122016-042018-082023-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Cruz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.0W4.6W4.5W6.6L3.6L4.5W5.0W4.2L2011-072016-012020-052022-08
WinLossTrend

Cejudo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

Cruz · Last 5

L · KO · R4
Marlon VeraRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · 2022-08
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5
Decision
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Casey KenneyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · KO · R2
Henry CejudoRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Cody GarbrandtRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12

News & Media

Henry Cejudo · Dominick Cruz
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