METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Flyweight
VS
60%
Ulanbekov
40%
Durden
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:25
★ Official Result
Tagir UlanbekovwinsSubmissionR2 · 4:25
def. Cody Durden · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ulanbekov
→
Actual result
Ulanbekov wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Ulanbekov holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Durden has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Durden has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
UlanbekovDurden
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ulanbekov
Durden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
67"
35
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Ulanbekov
Durden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
36.8
50.3
Performance Avg
37.6
34
Quality of Victory
34
80
Momentum Score
54
Ulanbekov
Durden
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
4.6
Style: Pressure
3.3
6.8
Style: Volume
6.6
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance6
1Clinch0
3Ground3
Ulanbekov
Durden
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ulanbekov
Durden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
17/28 fights
Ulanbekov
Durden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
54
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Ulanbekov
Durden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ulanbekov
Durden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
UlanbekovDurden
Strike Zones
Ulanbekov
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedDurden
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ulanbekov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Durden absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Durden targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ulanbekov absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ulanbekov
RND
Durden
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ulanbekov · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
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W · Sub · R1
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