UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Flyweight
VS
60%
Ulanbekov
40%
Durden
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:25
Tagir
Tagir Ulanbekov
17 – 3
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Cody
Cody Durden
"Custom Made"
18 – 10
Well-Rounded35 yrsSouthpaw67" reach5'7"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ulanbekov

Ulanbekov holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Durden has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Ulanbekov has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Durden has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ulanbekov
Durden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
67"
34+
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Ulanbekov
Durden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
37.8
50.3
Performance Avg
38.8
34
Quality of Victory
34
80
Momentum Score
54
Ulanbekov
Durden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
54%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
8
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance6
1Clinch0
3Ground3
Ulanbekov
Durden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ulanbekov
Durden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
4
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
17/28 fights
Ulanbekov
Durden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
54
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Ulanbekov
Durden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ulanbekov
Durden
Striking1.5 / 2.4Volume6.8 / 6.7Grappling4.3 / 2.9Wrestling3.0 / 2.0Submission3.3 / 1.4Pressure4.6 / 3.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Ulanbekov
Strike Zones
Durden
Ulanbekov
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Durden
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ulanbekov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Durden absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Durden targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ulanbekov absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ulanbekov
RND
Durden
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ulanbekov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.4W6.0W5.6L6.2W5.4W5.4W4.5W5.5L2020-102022-032023-122025-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Durden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.0L5.3W2.9L5.0W4.5W5.4W5.2W3.8L3.6L5.4W7.1L3.7L4.3L6.6L5.6W2020-122022-102024-072025-112026-04
WinLossTrend

Ulanbekov · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Azat MaksumRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Clayton CarpenterRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R1
Nate ManessRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11

Durden · Last 5

Upcoming
Ode Osbourne
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Jafel FilhoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Nyamjargal TumendemberelRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R2
Allan NascimentoRating 4.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Jose OchoaRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06

News & Media

Tagir Ulanbekov · Cody Durden
← Back to fights