UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Gold Coast, Australia
14 Dec 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
9%
Penner
91%
Donovan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:35
NP
Nick Penner
"The Quiet Assassin"
11 – 3
6'4"Southpaw46 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
CD
Cody Donovan
"Donnybrook"
8 – 5
Knockout Artist3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'3"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Donovan

Donovan is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Donovan has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 60 points.

Donovan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Penner's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Donovan has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Penner
Donovan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
Reach
74"
46
Age
+45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Penner
Donovan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.6
15.9
0.0
Performance Avg
46.0
0
Quality of Victory
60
0
Momentum Score
22
Penner
Donovan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.4
4.2
30%
Strike Accuracy
62%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
1
Body
9
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance6
1Clinch8
1Ground5
Penner
Donovan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
3.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Penner
Donovan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/14 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Penner
Donovan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
22
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Penner
Donovan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Penner
Donovan
Striking0.0 / 10.0Volume0.0 / 0.5Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Penner
Strike Zones
Donovan
Penner
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD9BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Donovan
Attacking
9HEAD9BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Penner targets the head (86% of attacks) — Donovan absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Donovan targets the head (47% of attacks) — Penner absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Penner
RND
Donovan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Penner · QOF Timeline

Avg: 1.5
0101.5L1.5L2012-032012-12
WinLossTrend

Donovan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0105.0W2.1L2.8L2.7L2012-122013-082013-112014-07
WinLossTrend

Penner · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Cody DonovanRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Anthony PeroshRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · 2012-03

Donovan · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
W · KO · R1
Nick PennerRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12

News & Media

Nick Penner · Cody Donovan
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