UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Portland, USA
1 Oct 2016
Heavyweight
VS
3%
East
97%
Blaydes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:02
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Blaydes
Blaydes is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 52 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Blaydes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 42 points.
Striking split: East throws more volume but Blaydes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
East's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Blaydes has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
East
Blaydes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
Reach
80"
37
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
East
Blaydes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.6
53.9
0.0
Performance Avg
53.4
0
Quality of Victory
42
0
Momentum Score
81
East
Blaydes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.1
1.6
43%
Strike Accuracy
56%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
24
0
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance5
0Clinch0
2Ground23
East
Blaydes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
East
Blaydes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
8
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/15 fights
Chin rating based on
21/25 fights
East
Blaydes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
81
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
East
Blaydes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
East
Blaydes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.4
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
EastBlaydes
Strike Zones
East
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedBlaydes
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯East targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Blaydes targets the head (86% of attacks) — East absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
East
RND
Blaydes
0/0R00/0
East · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.6WinLossTrend
Blaydes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
East · Last 2
L · KO · R2
Curtis BlaydesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
L · KO · R1
Walt HarrisRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
Blaydes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04