UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Las Vegas, USA
18 Jan 2020
Bantamweight
VS
44%
Kelleher
56%
Osbourne
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:49
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Osbourne
This is a genuine toss-up — Kelleher at 44% vs Osbourne at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Kelleher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Kelleher's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Osbourne has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Kelleher
Osbourne
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
+73"
39
Age
+34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Kelleher
Osbourne
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
40.8
51.3
44.5
Performance Avg
43.7
43
Quality of Victory
45
61
Momentum Score
87
Kelleher
Osbourne
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
9
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch1
4Ground5
Kelleher
Osbourne
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelleher
Osbourne
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
16
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/40 fights
Chin rating based on
14/22 fights
Kelleher
Osbourne
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
87
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Kelleher
Osbourne
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kelleher
Osbourne
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
KelleherOsbourne
Strike Zones
Kelleher
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedOsbourne
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kelleher targets the head (71% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Osbourne targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kelleher
RND
Osbourne
0/0R00/0
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Osbourne · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
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Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Osbourne · Last 5
Upcoming
Cody DurdenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
Upcoming
Alibi IdirisUFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
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W · KO · R2
Luis GuruleRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 6.7Decision
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