Jared Cannonier vs Christian Leroy Duncan — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Oklahoma City, USA

18 Jul 2026

Middleweight

46%

Cannonier

54%

Duncan

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Jared Cannonier

"The Killa Gorilla"

18 – 9

5'11"77" reachSwitch42 yrs2-fight slideStriker

CFR 54

Christian Leroy Duncan

"CLD"

14 – 2

Striker5-fight win streak31 yrsSwitch79" reach6'2"

CFR 63

★ Official Result

Christian Leroy DuncanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Jared Cannonier · UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Duncan

→

Actual result

Duncan wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Cannonier at 46% vs Duncan at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Cannonier's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

CannonierDuncan

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Cannonier

Duncan

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"

Height

+6'2"

77"

Reach

+79"

Age

+31

Switch

Stance

Switch

Cannonier

Duncan

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

53.5

63.4

48.2

Performance Avg

59.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Cannonier

Duncan

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

7.4

/ 10

7.8

/ 10

6.0

Style: Pressure

6.8

4.0

Style: Volume

4.6

7 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

5 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

1Distance19

2Clinch6

0Ground0

Cannonier

Duncan

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.9

/ 10

0.9

/ 10

0.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.6

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Cannonier

Duncan

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

21/27 fights

Chin rating based on

11/16 fights

Cannonier

Duncan

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

5-fight 🔥 win streak

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R4

L · Dec · R5

L · KO · R4

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

Cannonier

Duncan

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

64%

63%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cannonier

Duncan

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

7.4

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.8

0.9

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.9

0.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.6

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

6.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.8

4.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.6

Cannonier

Strike Zones

Duncan

Cannonier

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

25 absorbed

Duncan

Attacking

25 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Cannonier targets the body (67% of attacks) — Duncan absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Duncan targets the head (52% of attacks) — Cannonier absorbs 52% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cannonier

RND

Duncan

0/0R00/0

Cannonier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Christian Leroy Duncan

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07

L · Dec · R3

Michael Page

Decision

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

W · KO · R4

Gregory Rodrigues

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

L · Dec · R5

Caio Borralho

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08

L · KO · R4

Nassourdine Imavov

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06

Duncan · Last 5

Upcoming

Brendan Allen

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10

W · Dec · R3

Jared Cannonier

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · 2026-07

W · Dec · R3

Roman Dolidze

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03

W · KO · R2

Marco Tulio

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11

W · KO · R1

Eryk Anders

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08

News & Media

Jared Cannonier · Christian Leroy Duncan

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