METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Heavyweight
VS
5%
Grabowski
95%
Sherman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DG
CFR 2
★ Official Result
Chase ShermanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Damian Grabowski · UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sherman
→
Actual result
Sherman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Sherman is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sherman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Risk flags
Grabowski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sherman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GrabowskiSherman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Grabowski
Sherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+78"
46
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grabowski
Sherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.5
30.1
0.0
Performance Avg
38.4
0
Quality of Victory
46
0
Momentum Score
46
Grabowski
Sherman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
6.0
0.0
Style: Volume
2.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
19
6
Body
8
5
Leg
9
RangeRange
20Distance27
5Clinch9
0Ground0
Grabowski
Sherman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Grabowski
Sherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Grabowski
Sherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Grabowski
Sherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grabowski
Sherman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
GrabowskiSherman
Strike Zones
Grabowski
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedSherman
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grabowski targets the head (56% of attacks) — Sherman absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Sherman targets the head (53% of attacks) — Grabowski absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grabowski
RND
Sherman
0/0R00/0
Grabowski · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Anthony HamiltonKO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
Sherman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · 2022-11
W · KO · R3
Jared VanderaaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
L · Sub · R1
Jake CollierSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01