UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum
Uniondale, USA
22 Jul 2017
Heavyweight
VS
5%
Grabowski
95%
Sherman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DG
CFR 2
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sherman
Sherman is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sherman has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.
Sherman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Grabowski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sherman has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Grabowski
Sherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+78"
46
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Grabowski
Sherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
1.5
30.1
0.0
Performance Avg
38.4
0
Quality of Victory
46
0
Momentum Score
46
Grabowski
Sherman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
19
6
Body
8
5
Leg
9
RangeRange
20Distance27
5Clinch9
0Ground0
Grabowski
Sherman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Grabowski
Sherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/25 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Grabowski
Sherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Grabowski
Sherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Grabowski
Sherman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
GrabowskiSherman
Strike Zones
Grabowski
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
36 absorbedSherman
Attacking
36 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Grabowski targets the head (56% of attacks) — Sherman absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Sherman targets the head (53% of attacks) — Grabowski absorbs 53% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Grabowski
RND
Sherman
0/0R00/0
Grabowski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Sherman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Grabowski · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Anthony HamiltonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
Sherman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
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W · KO · R3
Jared VanderaaRating 5.5KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Alexandr RomanovRating 2.3Submission
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