METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Lightweight
VS
57%
Oliveira
43%
Chandler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
CFR 63
★ Official Result
Charles OliveirawinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Michael Chandler · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oliveira
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 57% vs Chandler at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chandler has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OliveiraChandler
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oliveira
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
71"
36+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
47.8
58.6
Performance Avg
44.5
51
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
46
Oliveira
Chandler
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
8.0
Style: Pressure
7.8
2.7
Style: Volume
0.5
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
30
2
Body
9
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground24
Oliveira
Chandler
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
6.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
17
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oliveira
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Oliveira
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Oliveira
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
17
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Chandler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
OliveiraChandler
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedChandler
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (42% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (75% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Chandler · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettKO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraDecision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonKO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05