UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
New York City, USA
16 Nov 2024
Lightweight
VS
56%
Oliveira
44%
Chandler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
CFR 63
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oliveira
This is a genuine toss-up — Oliveira at 56% vs Chandler at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Oliveira throws more volume but Chandler connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chandler has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oliveira
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
71"
36+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
50.3
58.6
Performance Avg
45.9
51
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
46
Oliveira
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
53%
Strike Accuracy
57%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
30
2
Body
9
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance16
0Clinch0
0Ground24
Oliveira
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
40
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Oliveira
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
46
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Oliveira
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
17
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oliveira
Chandler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
OliveiraChandler
Strike Zones
Oliveira
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedChandler
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (42% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 42% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (75% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oliveira
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Chandler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Oliveira · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Chandler · Last 5
Upcoming
Mauricio RuffyUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05