UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Perth, Australia
11 Feb 2023
Welterweight
VS
55%
Maddalena
45%
Brown
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:13
JD
Jack Della Maddalena
18 – 4
5'11"73" reachSwitch29 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 64
Randy
Randy Brown
"Rudeboy"
20 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Maddalena

This is a genuine toss-up — Maddalena at 55% vs Brown at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Maddalena has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Brown has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Maddalena
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+78"
29+
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Maddalena
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
52.9
59.9
Performance Avg
48.7
46
Quality of Victory
39
80
Momentum Score
92
Maddalena
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
6.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
6
1
Body
2
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
5Distance11
2Clinch0
7Ground0
Maddalena
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Maddalena
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
4
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/22 fights
Chin rating based on
22/28 fights
Maddalena
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
92
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Maddalena
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Maddalena
Brown
Striking6.6 / 4.1Volume4.6 / 5.3Grappling1.9 / 2.9Wrestling1.3 / 2.0Submission1.3 / 2.1Pressure6.8 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.1
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Maddalena
Strike Zones
Brown
Maddalena
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY4LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 absorbed
Brown
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY3LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY4LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Maddalena targets the head (64% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (55% of attacks) — Maddalena absorbs 55% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Maddalena
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Maddalena · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.7W5.0W5.0W5.9W4.5W5.1W5.7W5.6W7.5L5.0L2022-012023-022024-032026-05
WinLossTrend

Brown · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W2.8L5.5W5.2W6.6L5.0W3.4L5.9W5.5W4.2L5.0W5.0W5.9W4.5W3.0L4.5W6.0W5.0W7.3L5.6W3.8L6.1L2016-012018-072022-052024-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Maddalena · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Carlos PratesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

Brown · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R2
Gabriel BonfimRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R2
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Bryan BattleRating 7.3
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Jack Della Maddalena · Randy Brown
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