UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
20 Jan 2021
Light Heavyweight
VS
97%
Villanueva
3%
Moreira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Villanueva
Villanueva is a strong favourite at 97% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Villanueva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Moreira has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Villanueva's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Moreira has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Villanueva
Moreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+76"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Villanueva
Moreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.7
0.6
39.7
Performance Avg
0.0
55
Quality of Victory
0
13
Momentum Score
0
Villanueva
Moreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.1
36%
Strike Accuracy
46%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Villanueva
Moreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Villanueva
Moreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
22
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/32 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Villanueva
Moreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Villanueva
Moreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Villanueva
Moreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
VillanuevaMoreira
Strike Zones
Villanueva
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMoreira
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Villanueva targets the head (100% of attacks) — Moreira absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Moreira targets the head (50% of attacks) — Villanueva absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Villanueva
RND
Moreira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Villanueva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Moreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.4WinLossTrend
Villanueva · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tyson PedroRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
L · KO · R1
Nicolae NegumereanuRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · KO · R2
Marcin PrachnioRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R2
Vinicius MoreiraRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · R1
Jordan WrightRating 4UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
Moreira · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Ike VillanuevaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Sub · R1
Paul CraigRating 2.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01