UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Lightweight
VS
96%
Puelles
4%
Mariano
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Puelles
Puelles is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Puelles has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.
Puelles has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Puelles's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Puelles
Mariano
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+76"
30+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Puelles
Mariano
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
2.4
45.5
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
78
Momentum Score
0
Puelles
Mariano
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
36%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
0
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Puelles
Mariano
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.8
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Puelles
Mariano
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/18 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Puelles
Mariano
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Puelles
Mariano
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Puelles
Mariano
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
PuellesMariano
Strike Zones
Puelles
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMariano
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Puelles targets the head (88% of attacks) — Mariano absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Mariano targets the body (100% of attacks) — Puelles absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Puelles
RND
Mariano
0/0R00/0
Puelles · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Mariano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Puelles · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Dan HookerRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
W · Sub · R3
Chris GruetzemacherRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
Mariano · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Claudio PuellesRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Sub · R1
Lando VannataRating 2Submission
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · 2019-02