UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Stockholm, Sweden
1 Jun 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
30%
Gustafsson
70%
Smith
Win Probability
Submission
Round 4 · 2:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gustafsson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gustafsson
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'4"
79"+
Reach
76"
39
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gustafsson
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.8
58.3
50.3
Performance Avg
50.7
47
Quality of Victory
50
39
Momentum Score
100
Gustafsson
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
1
Body
2
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground5
Gustafsson
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gustafsson
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Gustafsson
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Gustafsson
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
77%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gustafsson
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
GustafssonSmith
Strike Zones
Gustafsson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedSmith
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gustafsson targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (63% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gustafsson
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Gustafsson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Gustafsson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
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L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
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